Poll: Did you ever pirate Ableton?

Patch · Post by **Patch** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 11:08 pm

Y'argh!!! This be an interesting thread! But let me ask you this...

...Do you have any spare change???

mike holiday · Post by **mike holiday** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 11:09 pm

Patch wrote:
...Do you have any spare change???

change comes from within

FaX-01 · Post by **FaX-01** » Wed Oct 11, 2006 12:20 am

Allison Redhead wrote:
We can say several things. The first, and most interesting, is that of forum users, one half once pirated Ableton and then bought it. We've got 182 responses from a population of 17050 registered users. 50%, as of this writing indicated they once pirated Ableton and now own it. That's a confidence level of 95% and a confidence interval of 7.23%. We can say then, of Ableton forum users, and with confidence level of 95%, 50% +/- 7.23% once pirated and then bought Ableton. That's between 42.77% - 57.23% with 95% confidence. That's between 7,292 and 9,757 users with 95% confidence. Assuming an average revenue per user of $250 (I don't have any actual figure for this but I assume its low given the price of Live 5 and Live 6) that's a 95% confidence that Ableton recieved between $1.82 million and $2.43 million in revenue from users who once pirated Ableton.

Let's repeat that.

Assuming an average spend of $250 per user, we can be 95% confident that Ableton recieved between $1.82 million and $2.43 million in revenue from users who once pirated Ableton.

And that's just counting forum users. The real figure is certainly higher.

Cold hard stats with margins of error and confidence levels. I doubt Gallup would really do much better and they would charge an arm and a leg.

- Allison

Alison I ask you if that's the case ok why do you not factor in Martketing over the Last 6 versions , paying programmers over the last 6 versions , the costs of box manufacture and distribution globally , internal company computer upgrading expenses , official taxes , expenses for appearing at NAMM / AES etc , all the help centre staff expenses , the costs of coding for Universal Binary and development of new tools in Live + Sampler & Operator , the cost of rent and power overheads etc at the company headquarters and so on and so forth.
So your little 'guestimate' on how much money Ableton has made is just that a guess.
What of those that tried a pirated copy that never bought , those that tried a pirated copy and are still using it , those who buy a legitimate copy but install it illegally of various mates computers .
Your statistics purely state that 50% of X respondents who pirated Live bought it. Lets face it nearly damn close to 50% bought it outright like me.
Then there are those that refused to answer your survey and the broader warez community who seem to use anything because it's free.
So I cannot see for the life of me what your poll is indicative of.
You seem to be skewing a statistic to suit your own purposes.
And I quote "And that's just counting forum users. The real figure is certainly higher" - now that's based on assumption not hard science.
The group isn't even large enough to be truly demographically significant IMHO.

Allison Redhead · Post by **Allison Redhead** » Wed Oct 11, 2006 12:52 am

FaX-01 wrote:Alison I ask you if that's the case ok why do you not factor in Martketing over the Last 6 versions , paying programmers over the last 6 versions , the costs of box manufacture and distribution globally , internal company computer upgrading expenses , official taxes , expenses for appearing at NAMM / AES etc , all the help centre staff expenses , the costs of coding for Universal Binary and development of new tools in Live + Sampler & Operator , the cost of rent and power overheads etc at the company headquarters and so on and so forth.
So your little 'guestimate' on how much money Ableton has made is just that a guess.

My guestimate was on how much REVENUE Ableton had from people who had originally pirated the software. That's it. You are confusing Revenue and Net Income above. The fixed and variable expenses you put forth above are not relevant to the discussion. Ask any shareholder if they would prefer to have the revenue or not and I think the answer would be pretty universal- that is unless Ableton is taking a loss on each sale because of massive variable costs (which I highly doubt).

What of those that tried a pirated copy that never bought

See the survey results.

those that tried a pirated copy and are still using it

See the survey results.

those who buy a legitimate copy but install it illegally of various mates computers.

You are double counting. Those would be covered in your catagories above.

Your statistics purely state that 50% of X respondents who pirated Live bought it. Lets face it nearly damn close to 50% bought it outright like me.
Then there are those that refused to answer your survey and the broader warez community who seem to use anything because it's free.

I can't say anything about the population outside the survey scope. Neither can you. Unless you are aware of some data that we are not.

So I cannot see for the life of me what your poll is indicative of.

That a huge hunk of revenue results from people who originally pirated the software. Period. Take from that what you will.

You seem to be skewing a statistic to suit your own purposes.

What purpose is that, exactly? People keep saying this, yet they have no idea what my purposes are. (Hint: That's becasue I don't have any other than discussing the survey results).

And I quote "And that's just counting forum users. The real figure is certainly higher" - now that's based on assumption not hard science.

Oh, please. If there is even ONE person who pirated ableton and isn't registered on the forums then my statement is correct. Unless you want to assume that every purchaser of Ableton is also registered on the forum then you have to admit that there are more former pirates out there than we have counted with my little survey. Basic logic. Unless you want to claim that my survey covered all users of Ableton everywhere then we pretty much have to admit that there are more than we've counted in all the catagories. No assumptions required other than that at least ONE former pirate isn't registered on the forums. I think that's pretty safe. Depending on your level of understanding of inductive logic your view may be different. If so, I suggest you take that up with the institution of higher learning you attended.

The group isn't even large enough to be truly demographically significant IMHO.

Then you don't understand statistics or the way sufficient sample size is calculated and its relation to confidence interval and confidence levels. In short, you just don't understand statistics.

I gave confidence intervals, confidence levels and margins of error with my numbers. It's exactly as statsitically significant as I put forth, unless you want to find an error in my math or challenge the field of statistics as somehow "invalid." According to you Gallup should be out of business as they are just assuming too much.

Look folks, I'm happy to discuss the math here with anyone who actually UNDERSTANDS STATISTICS AND SURVEYS, but just because you don't like the results because they don't fit within the political worldview you espouse we aren't going to re-examine the field of statistics and probabilities.

You aren't helping your case by arguing without a full understanding of the underlying concepts.

b0unce · Post by **b0unce** » Wed Oct 11, 2006 12:53 am

FaX-01 wrote: The group isn't even large enough to be truly demographically significant IMHO.

so what.

it says this much, that 95 people bought it after using the crack. 95 licenses at about 400 euro a license - not to be sneezed at. considering they could have kept using cracks.

so the poll doesnt cover every single user, but it is a reasonable sample group. We can speculate all day about who uses this forum or not...but why not argue over the colour of shite while we're at it.

its a sample group, and within that sample group half the people used the crack and then bought it - its not that crazy to apply that percentage to the bigger picture. thats how marketing works, taking surveys with sample groups.

what would the point be in having this poll on the KVR forum for example ? theres a much greater chance there will be dudes just using the cracked version - I'm only interested in what the paying customers habits are (and chances are they visit this forum), and its interesting to know that half the people used the crack first before buying.

djsentinel · Post by **djsentinel** » Wed Oct 11, 2006 2:31 am

kcp wrote:Got Live 4 Lite with a soundcard and bought Live 5. I'll buy Live 6 soon.

Using pirated software is juvenile and unprofessional.

And you damn kids stay off my lawn!

How old you think I am?

Try 16.

djsentinel · Post by **djsentinel** » Wed Oct 11, 2006 2:33 am

I wanna hear from the Ableton's and hear what they think of this thread.

Machinesworking · Post by **Machinesworking** » Wed Oct 11, 2006 6:10 am

Allison Redhead wrote:
FaX-01 wrote:The group isn't even large enough to be truly demographically significant IMHO.
Then you don't understand statistics or the way sufficient sample size is calculated and its relation to confidence interval and confidence levels. In short, you just don't understand statistics.

I gave confidence intervals, confidence levels and margins of error with my numbers. It's exactly as statsitically significant as I put forth, unless you want to find an error in my math or challenge the field of statistics as somehow "invalid." According to you Gallup should be out of business as they are just assuming too much.

Look folks, I'm happy to discuss the math here with anyone who actually UNDERSTANDS STATISTICS AND SURVEYS, but just because you don't like the results because they don't fit within the political worldview you espouse we aren't going to re-examine the field of statistics and probabilities.

You aren't helping your case by arguing without a full understanding of the underlying concepts.

You're not understanding the reasoning here at all, it's why I asked if English was your native tongue.
Most people here who used to use pirated versions of Live have since bought Live, that makes total sense considering the fact that this is Ableton's forum. That a larger percentage of ex pirates would be present at the Ableton forums than elsewhere doesn't require a huge leap in logic.

A significantly large amount of electronic musicians pirate software. Large amounts of those do not pay for the software. There's a reason for the virulent copy protection.
A larger number of people who actively use the pirated software would be found in any poll outside the Ableton forums.
I personally know of plenty of musicians who steal all of it, every last bit, write and release CD's etc.

The fact that Ableton forum people pirated a copy then bought it is an empty testament to the validity of cracked software as a legitimate business model.

This sort of thread makes me worry about Ableton coming up with dongles and other more hard core forms of copy protection. Max/MSP has PACE, and honestly I blame that as much on the people who espouse cracks as legitimate business models, as I do the developers. What kills me is that I really don't want anything to do with PACE, not interested in supporting a company that uses that sort of invasive, and potentially instability causing copy protection.

Logic is doing VERY well, and it has a dongle, with little or no working cracks. Do you want to see Live with a dongle? I sure the fuck don't!

I'm done with talking to you about this, but I seriously think it's funny that you've accused me of arrogance and conceit, yet you are trying to show this forum, and let's face it, in the grandest of arrogance, the Ableton employees that happen to read this thread, your brilliant statistics on forum members.
My fear is your arrogance will result in PACE, a dongle, or some other draconian measure. Maybe not next year, but eventually.
Have you noticed how many developers are starting to use iLock etc. ?? I sure the hell have. I'm pretty sure you believe that your numbers prove that cracked software promotes sales, yet you refuse at all costs to admit that the numbers you're coming up with are skewed towards paying customers! Plenty of whom have matured and given up on cracked software.

What this survey doesn't show is how many users are currently using a pirated version logic and would buy it if the crack wasn't so good. THAT is the statistic that makes me twitch. That is the statistic that will push companies like Ableton towards PACE, iLock, or their own dongle etc....

I would be totally behind you if we were over at a Cycling 74 forum, considering I like their software, but hate PACE, but you're not. Here you are at the most laid back, least moderated, and easiest copy protection method using software developers forum coming up with statistics that are so obviously biased towards your agenda..........

Fuck it.

If Live 7 has a dongle or PACE, it's people like you I can thank. Good work.

Allison Redhead · Post by **Allison Redhead** » Wed Oct 11, 2006 7:45 am

Machinesworking wrote:You're not understanding the reasoning here at all, it's why I asked if English was your native tongue.

No, you aren't understanding the reasoning. Namely, if Ableton moves to dongles then they risk losing a good slice of the more than $1.5 million in revenue as most of the people who came to Ableton came here via a cracked copy.

Take the time to read what I've written, rather than being a reactionary. Go back to my post in the other thread, which is linked in the first part of this one.

I've pointed out time and time again that light copy protection helps userbase. Here we see that in spades.

I'm not sure what your issue is, other than slim understanding of statistics and what seems to be a lack of reading comprehension.

I'm done with talking to you about this, but I seriously think it's funny that you've accused me of arrogance and conceit, yet you are trying to show this forum, and let's face it, in the grandest of arrogance, the Ableton employees that happen to read this thread, your brilliant statistics on forum members.

Susan: "2 +2 = 4"
Todd: "You arrogant ass!"

My fear is your arrogance will result in PACE, a dongle, or some other draconian measure. Maybe not next year, but eventually.

...

If Live 7 has a dongle or PACE, it's people like you I can thank. Good work.

Note the date and the time, fellow readers. It was all Allison's fault! Damn redheads. Wouldn't be in Iraq if they just kept their mouths shut!

M. Bréqs · Post by **M. Bréqs** » Wed Oct 11, 2006 2:39 pm

I bought version 1 in the music store back in 2000 or 2001 (I think, it's hard to remember now)...

I've bought and paid for each upgrade directly from Ableton since then, including Operator and Sampler.

psilopsyche · Post by **psilopsyche** » Wed Oct 11, 2006 3:40 pm

Machinesworking wrote:
Allison Redhead wrote: Just because the poll is rubbing your morality the wrong way doesn't make it a flawed poll.
Morality has nothing to do with it. The poll is geared towards getting a response you want. Compare it to asking if you have ever drunk alcohol, or cocaine. If the questions point towards your advocating cocaine by saying yes, then it's a flawed poll.
Say someone was making a point about heroin, that it was not good, and you started a poll asking if anybody had ever tried heroin. If your intention was to prove that a heroin user is not a bad person because others have also tried heroin, it's flawed statistics.

Again, because the facts rub your morality the wrong way doesn't make it a flawed poll.

"I'm not voting because it will show everyone my worldview is flawed." That's childish.
It's not a factual poll if all the categories for the question are not there. This has nothing to do with morality. It's like a lesbian asking a woman if she has ever slept with another woman as proof of her lesbianism.

Allison Redhead wrote:
Sure, people will sometimes buy software they steal, but realistically, I realized that if I didn't toss it all, I would never pay for it all! Period!
The poll results suggest your view is a minority one.
Right, start a poll and ask people if they have any cracked software on their computer at all, and you'll see that even people who paid for Live, who advocate cracked software to some degree, have plenty of cracked software on their computer. All you have to do is look at the people around you and you realize how prevalent it is.
I personally couldn't care if my opinion is completely different to 99.99% of the planet, if all of you are fooling yourselves, and trying to get me to agree.

Allison Redhead wrote:
The poll doesn't reflect who I am, or the situation with cracked software, at all.
Notice the conceit here. "Who I am" and "the [worldwide] situation with cracked software" are identical? How many mirrors do you have in your house anyway?

This was part of the point of the poll. People are emotional on this issue because they just aren't in touch with the numbers. They, instead, choose to substitute the very poor metric of personal experience for fact.

- Allison
If English is not your first language, then I understand why you would think that I was connecting my personal opinion with the bigger picture here. If it is, then you need to read what I said clearly, the conjunction "or" was used where you reply like I said "and". "Doesn't reflect who I am" as in, your poll is geared towards your personal agenda, not mine.

I think you are refusing to look at what I'm saying, for whatever reason? You can make a poll look any way you want to.

In seattle here most kids steal cars in high school, it's some sort of right of passage, if I made a poll that said, "have you ever stolen a car?" Well here in Seattle you would get a lot of yes votes, and if you were to say per chance use that information to come to the conclusion that "stealing cars gets a lot of young drivers interested in having their own!"
Would that prove anything at all? Would there be any real information gathered? All it would really prove is that some of us when young had little ethics.
I appreciate your intention, but I think your poll is biased towards your agenda, not the facts.

I think that you explained your POV very well.

djadonis206 · Post by **djadonis206** » Wed Oct 11, 2006 3:53 pm

No, I never have - the demo was pretty "giving"

I know a few people who do use Ableton "cracked" and I don't think anything bad against them...that's their decision and I could care less

peace

ad

psilopsyche · Post by **psilopsyche** » Wed Oct 11, 2006 3:59 pm

Why cant you people have differing opinions and discuss them without trying to one-up one another? I think that you both make valid points. I believe however that machinesworking is trying to look at the big picture while Allison (albeit excellent post) is looking too closely at one group of participants. I believe that the poll reflects a fact that there are a great number of people who have used Live and subsequently purchased it for a number of reasons. The whole point of this discussion was to attempt to show that pirated copies of Live can infact lead to increased revenue due to increased userbase, free marketing, etc, etc, etc... . . .

mosca · Post by **mosca** » Wed Oct 11, 2006 4:16 pm

NFR's since version 1.5

so, no i've never priated it

mo

franknputer · Post by **franknputer** » Wed Oct 11, 2006 4:35 pm

Damn! I bet this thread would be 1/2 its length if you took out all the bitching about Allison's methodology.

Good Lord, get over it. It's not a strictly scientific, infallible poll (oxymoron) but so f'in what? I don't believe Allison ever said it was. It's interesting, not to mention encouraging, to see so many that started with a crack & decided to pay later.

But - to think that any of this has any massive implications beyond this forum, and to get all bent out of shape over it, is pretty ridiculous. The wording of a poll question is not going to cause the downfall of Western Civilization.

Poll: Did you ever pirate Ableton?

Did you ever Pirate Ableton?