Poll: Did you ever pirate Ableton?

[Allison Redhead]

Just because the poll is rubbing your morality the wrong way doesn't make it a flawed poll.

Morality has nothing to do with it. The poll is geared towards getting a response you want. Compare it to asking if you have ever drunk alcohol, or cocaine. If the questions point towards your advocating cocaine by saying yes, then it's a flawed poll.
Say someone was making a point about heroin, that it was not good, and you started a poll asking if anybody had ever tried heroin. If your intention was to prove that a heroin user is not a bad person because others have also tried heroin, it's flawed statistics.

All I am interested in is how many people pirated Ableton Live and have since paid for it. The fact that the numbers support my theory that this is a good percentage and that you in turn disagree with my theory doesn't invalidate the numbers simply because you say it should be so. THAT'S flawed statistics. If you believe there is, in some sense, some sort of question bias in the way I've written the questions, please outline the specifics. Otherwise, you're just pouting.

Next you'll be telling me that we have to count indented chads on the ballots and we need a recount.

Again, because the facts rub your morality the wrong way doesn't make it a flawed poll.

"I'm not voting because it will show everyone my worldview is flawed." That's childish.

It's not a factual poll if all the categories for the question are not there. This has nothing to do with morality. It's like a lesbian asking a woman if she has ever slept with another woman as proof of her lesbianism.

Sorry, I just don't follow. I asked if people pirated Ableton. If so, I then asked if they've since bought it. What person did I miss?

I included:

Pirated Ableton, haven't bought it.
Pirated Ableton, bought it.
Didn't pirate Ableton, bought it.
Don't use Ableton.

What catagory with dozens of users did I miss, exactly? Pirated Ableton, and I'm a lesbian?

And what's with the lesbian comments, are you trying to suggest something? That's rather shallow, don't you think?

Sure, people will sometimes buy software they steal, but realistically, I realized that if I didn't toss it all, I would never pay for it all! Period!

The poll results suggest your view is a minority one.

Right, start a poll and ask people if they have any cracked software on their computer at all, and you'll see that even people who paid for Live, who advocate cracked software to some degree, have plenty of cracked software on their computer. All you have to do is look at the people around you and you realize how prevalent it is.

What does that have to do with the question the poll is asking? It's not relevant. Nor is who they voted for. The question here is how many people pirated Ableton Live and then bought it. What they did with Microsoft Word isn't interesting in this case. Nor is their sexual preference.

Also, please watch the quotes. I didn't make the comment about tossing all the software.

I personally couldn't care if my opinion is completely different to 99.99% of the planet, if all of you are fooling yourselves, and trying to get me to agree.

Now THAT is a case of invariate narcissism if ever I've seen one.

The poll doesn't reflect who I am, or the situation with cracked software, at all.

Notice the conceit here. "Who I am" and "the [worldwide] situation with cracked software" are identical? How many mirrors do you have in your house anyway?

This was part of the point of the poll. People are emotional on this issue because they just aren't in touch with the numbers. They, instead, choose to substitute the very poor metric of personal experience for fact.

- Allison

If English is not your first language,

It's my third.

then I understand why you would think that I was connecting my personal opinion with the bigger picture here. If it is, then you need to read what I said clearly, the conjunction "or" was used where you reply like I said "and". "Doesn't reflect who I am" as in, your poll is geared towards your personal agenda, not mine.

Since it's so clearly tied to my personal agenda, you won't have a problem outlining for me what my personal agenda is. Have at it. Otherwise, again, you are just pouting.

I think you are refusing to look at what I'm saying, for whatever reason? You can make a poll look any way you want to.

It's a conspiracy?

In seattle here most kids steal cars in high school,

Do you have statistics to back this up? I highly doubt 50.1% of highschoolers have stolen a car in Seattle. Perhaps I'm wrong and Seattle is one of the most crime ridden cities in the United States.

it's some sort of right of passage, if I made a poll that said, "have you ever stolen a car?" Well here in Seattle you would get a lot of yes votes, and if you were to say per chance use that information to come to the conclusion that "stealing cars gets a lot of young drivers interested in having their own!"
Would that prove anything at all? Would there be any real information gathered? All it would really prove is that some of us when young had little ethics.

If I added the question "Did you later buy the model car you stole" then we would have an interesting point. Stealing cars might boost auto sales of the same model later. This has zero to do with the morality of stealing cars. Your example fails to capture that. I don't think you understand surveys or statistics particularly well.

I appreciate your intention, but I think your poll is biased towards your agenda, not the facts.

Fact: of the respondents to the poll right now more than 50% right now once pirated Ableton and then bought it. What bias exactly do you think resulted in that split? Is my poll racist too? Sexist perhaps?

[longjohns]

see, you forgot important classifications:

bought ableton, never used it

bought ableton, then d/l'd a crack

for starters

[dataspore]

there's that tumbleweed again

[Machinesworking]

there's that tumbleweed again

I agree.

[Machinesworking]

Fact: of the respondents to the poll right now more than 50% right now once pirated Ableton and then bought it. What bias exactly do you think resulted in that split? Is my poll racist too? Sexist perhaps?

One last attempt.....

Of those 50% how many have completely given up on cracked software?

How many gave up on finding a decent crack, and bought Live because Ableton's delayed copy protection scheme is working?

and of those how many still steal all the software they can where the crack is solid, and teams like Oxygen release the latest version as soon as it comes out?

The point of this poll seems to me to be to prove that a substantial amount of crack users end up paying for it, but the audience is already made up of paying customers for the most part. Most people I know have used cracked software at some point. Not any where near half of the musicians I run into are 100% crack free.

As far as the personal attacks stuff goes, the lesbian comment had NOTHING to do with you, period! It's just a great example of a situation where you can set your agenda before you ask the question. If we are talking about the USA, and music/art communities, it's pretty much a given that a young girl will have at least one sexual encounter with another woman. If you use that information to draw any sort of real conclusion about the sexual persuasion of the girl, you would be doing her a disservice.
i think you've took the whole discussion too personally. I apologize if I have offended you without knowing about it. Not my intention.


There's a reason that music software tends to have some of the most hardcore copy protection out there. Most musicians have at one point used cracked software.



But to answer this........

Sorry, I just don't follow. I asked if people pirated Ableton. If so, I then asked if they've since bought it. What person did I miss?

I included:

Pirated Ableton, haven't bought it.
Pirated Ableton, bought it.
Didn't pirate Ableton, bought it.
Don't use Ableton.

What catagory with dozens of users did I miss, exactly?

Pirated Ableton, since then have stopped using cracked software.

Pirated Ableton, the crack doesn't work that well, so I bought it.

Pirated Ableton, only because I wanted to try it out for a few months, then bought it.

Pirated Ableton, and after realizing that I haven't paid for any of the $5000+ worth of plug ins, decided I would buy it, in a lame attempt at 'honor'. (or really, because I wanted one piece of software I was certain worked!)

Pirated software before, but gave up before I got interested in Live.

The list goes on....

My question for you is what exactly do you think your poll will prove?

[Allison Redhead]

Fact: of the respondents to the poll right now more than 50% right now once pirated Ableton and then bought it. What bias exactly do you think resulted in that split? Is my poll racist too? Sexist perhaps?

One last attempt.....

Of those 50% how many have completely given up on cracked software?

Who cares? Not the point. Again, this is not a moral question. You have the moral issue.

[aqua_tek]

Proud legal owner of Live 5 and 6. Proud legal owner of Reason 2.5 and 3.


Reason and Live are the only software I use, and it is software I have bought.

BUT...


why did I buy reason and live? Because I tried cracks of earlier versions (Reason 2 about 3.5 years ago, and Live 4 about 1-2 years ago) at the moments when I honestly was considering that I might want to buy them. And when the time was right, I did buy them. Bought Reason 2.5 when it came out, and upgraded to version 3 legally once it came out as well. Purchased Live 5 almost a month ago, and legally upgraded to Live 6.

No other cracks. No senseless, uncontrolled downloading of random warez just for the sake of having them. Software I cracked is software I eventually wound up buying.

So cracking software is sort of a grey area. Is it wrong? Some might say "yes". But thanks to this "wrong" I fell in love with this software and I did what's "right" thus making my purchases when my finances allowed.

In the end, everyone's happy. At least in my case. I admit there's a lot of people who take these hardworking designers' and programmers' labor for granted, and never end up showing their appreciation for this contribution to music technology by actually paying for what they tried and loved.

I think it's sad, and shame on them. That's all I can say.

My conscience is clean.

[Machinesworking]

Who cares? Not the point. Again, this is not a moral question. You have the moral issue.

What is the point then? What are you trying to prove?

[Allison Redhead]

Who cares? Not the point. Again, this is not a moral question. You have the moral issue.

What is the point then? What are you trying to prove?

That's an exercise left to the student.

Read the numbers. Do the math.

[horselesspaul]

I buy all my software. I think stealing may be wrong, controversially. I am sure someone will whinge otherwise, but my parents told me so and they seemed to have it all about right. If you can't afford something, f*cking save up for it until you can or don't have it. My first bass took me ages of saving before I could afford it. The only difference is that you don't need bottle to steal software because it's an anonymous process. Why does a dog lick its balls? Because it can.
People are probably lying in the poll to make themselves feel better.
My ranty tuppence.
Oh, and Live is really inexpensive considering what you can do with it.

[Machinesworking]

Who cares? Not the point. Again, this is not a moral question. You have the moral issue.

What is the point then? What are you trying to prove?

That's an exercise left to the student.

Read the numbers. Do the math.

I can't see any scientific inquiry involved in your poll. I assume you're intelligent enough to see that?

A: you're not polling a random sampling of musicians who use Live, only those that decide to hang in the Ableton forums.The company hosted forums.

B: Considering the owners of the forum, it would be safe to assume that a larger number of registered users of Live post here than at other forums for Live and related software.

C: Because a larger number of posters are most likely registered users, the numbers are skewed.

I could go on, but your numbers only refer to members of the Ableton forums, and in no way represent a cross section of Live users, legitimate or pirated. There's no real statistic that you can get from this, the numbers don't say anything.

[Pasha]

I knew Ableton Live 4 lite from OEM software included in my Audio FW card.
I have used it, fell in love, bougth it.

[frisbeedisk]

[Allison Redhead]

I can't see any scientific inquiry involved in your poll. I assume you're intelligent enough to see that?

A: you're not polling a random sampling of musicians who use Live, only those that decide to hang in the Ableton forums.The company hosted forums.

B: Considering the owners of the forum, it would be safe to assume that a larger number of registered users of Live post here than at other forums for Live and related software.

C: Because a larger number of posters are most likely registered users, the numbers are skewed.

You would suggest that the numbers are skewed away from piracy because of the larger number of registered users? Shouldn't there, therefore, be less pirates here, since these are the dedicated and professional users who commit significant time here and are therefore more likely to pay? Funny how the skew seems to go in the direction of your personal bias when you describe it (even absent any evidence).

I could go on,

We wait with baited breath.

but your numbers only refer to members of the Ableton forums, and in no way represent a cross section of Live users, legitimate or pirated.

I never claimed they did, nor am I interested in that stat.

There's no real statistic that you can get from this, the numbers don't say anything.

This is, of course, absurd.

We can say several things. The first, and most interesting, is that of forum users, one half once pirated Ableton and then bought it. We've got 182 responses from a population of 17050 registered users. 50%, as of this writing indicated they once pirated Ableton and now own it. That's a confidence level of 95% and a confidence interval of 7.23%. We can say then, of Ableton forum users, and with confidence level of 95%, 50% +/- 7.23% once pirated and then bought Ableton. That's between 42.77% - 57.23% with 95% confidence. That's between 7,292 and 9,757 users with 95% confidence. Assuming an average revenue per user of $250 (I don't have any actual figure for this but I assume its low given the price of Live 5 and Live 6) that's a 95% confidence that Ableton recieved between $1.82 million and $2.43 million in revenue from users who once pirated Ableton.

Let's repeat that.

Assuming an average spend of $250 per user, we can be 95% confident that Ableton recieved between $1.82 million and $2.43 million in revenue from users who once pirated Ableton.

And that's just counting forum users. The real figure is certainly higher.

Cold hard stats with margins of error and confidence levels. I doubt Gallup would really do much better and they would charge an arm and a leg.

Claiming sample bias on the basis of who is and who isn't a forum user isn't relevant because we aren't asking anything about the demographic of users nor are we interested in the populaton outside the forum. (We aren't interested if they are lesbians, for instance, we just don't care).

I'm done talking to a wall about issues not relevant to the discussion (like the sexual preference of the user, how many other priated pieces of software she has, her shoe size, if she stole Microsoft Word, or if she reads forums). Study stats. Study survey design. Post your own poll if you like.

- Allison

[Allison Redhead]

Interesting. Disney has come around to a more rounded view of piracy as well:

Disney Co-Chair recognises 'piracy is a business model'

Contributed by Nicol Wistreich Tuesday, 10 October 2006

"Pirates compete the same way we do - through quality, price and availability."
Giving the Keynote address at Mipcom, Disney co-chair Anne Sweeney has broken with studio convention and recognised piracy as a business model to compete with, as opposed to simply an illegal threat to be battled. Sweeney's pragmatic conversion came after seing - within 15 minutes of the ABC network premiere of Despearate Housewives - a high-quality, ad-free version that had appeared on P2P networks.

“We understand now that piracy is a business model,” said Sweeney, twice voted Hollywood's most powerful woman by the Hollywood Reporter. “It exists to serve a need in the market for consumers who want TV content on demand. Pirates compete the same way we do - through quality, price and availability. We we don’t like the model but we realise it’s competitive enough to make it a major competitor going forward.”

http://www.netribution.co.uk/2/content/view/972/182/